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2020 pneumonia outbreak threatens China's auto industry

Source: Cui Dongshu | 2020-01-28 13:34:45
Although the auto market sales in January are estimated to be poor, I believe the industry will overcome difficulties, explore more opportunities in the auto market, and promote the enthusiasm of first-time buyers for car purchases.

In 2003, SARS was in a period of high economic growth after the accession to the WTO and the outbreak of the popularity of private cars, so the car market was not affected much. In the context of China's passenger car market being too difficult in 2019, the impact of this pneumonia epidemic has worsened the auto market, which has also affected the car market that has just recovered. Therefore, the judgment of the previous growth rate of 1% in 2020 is under certain pressure. However, China is at risk, and Chinese households have a low consumption base for private cars and have great potential. Although the auto market sales in January are estimated to be poor, I believe the industry will overcome difficulties, explore more opportunities in the auto market, and promote the enthusiasm of first-time buyers for car purchases.

1. Review of the 2003 auto market

China's auto market has cut prices in Tianjin Xiali in 2002, triggering the Chinese car market to enter the first year of the popularity of private cars. The background was that China joined the WTO, the economy and society were booming, and consumer demand entered a new period of explosive growth. However, due to the entry into the WTO, everyone was worried that the corporate market would be affected greatly. Therefore, the car market was generally bearish around 2000 Attitudes, especially the judgments of automobile authorities in major cities on the automobile market are biased towards severe pessimism, and some automobile groups have made serious mistakes in the judgment of the automobile market, thus delaying the explosive growth of the automobile market.

Tianjin Xiali sharply reduced prices in 2002, which drastically lowered the threshold for car purchases, resulting in a rapid outbreak of purchase demand. At that time, Xiali's quality was extremely good, some parts were original Japanese parts, and Toyota's management was extremely perfect, so the market demand and reputation after the price reduction were extremely good.

In 2003, the consumer demand in the automobile market still maintained a strong growth trend. Despite the impact of SARS, the outbreak of demand was still extremely strong. At that time, the Chinese economy was still in the period of trade blowout immediately after entering the WTO, and the superposition of investment-led development model and demographic dividend window superimposed the economy. The economy quickly turned its head, and the epidemic did not have a big impact. My deep feeling at that time was that although I was doing sales management, we never worry about distributing the goods to the dealers, grabbing orders and resources is the core task of the dealers. Therefore, even in the SARS epidemic in 2003, the order demand was still high. The demand was still in short supply, so the year-on-year growth rate in the second quarter reached 66%. This was not the promotion of the epidemic, but the increase in sales after the increase in production and supply due to insufficient orders.

It would be inaccurate to simply use the high sales volume in the second quarter of 203 to prove that the SARS epidemic has promoted the city.

2, 02-03, the monthly data of the Federation of Associations made great progress

In 2003, I was responsible for the sales order business. I felt that the sales were intuitive at the time. Although the car market was hot at the time, it was an outbreak of first purchase demand in the Chinese auto market. The demand was generally strong, but mainly due to the contradiction between supply and demand. It has little impact on the auto market, but it still has a significant impact. Subsequently, after the 2004 auto market adjustment period and the 2005 auto market's own brand outbreak period, it entered a new round of outbreak period from 2005 to 2008.

You can see from the monthly data of the China Federation of Automobile Manufacturers that from March 2002, the sales growth of the automobile market has actually entered a continuous climbing period. There is no seasonal factor. By July and August, sales are still higher than April and May. By the end of November and December, we had to slow down production due to insufficient imports of Japanese products.

In 2003, the automobile market still maintained a sustained high growth trend. This was because the increase in the supply of parts and components ordered increased the production capacity of the company, and this growth trend continued until December 2003.

In 2004, due to the relatively weak demand in the entire market, after the high growth in February and March, the characteristics of the downturn actually appeared in April. From the weekly data of the China Federation of Consortiums we organized at the time, we have felt that the automobile market has emerged. Unusual abnormal factors. Subsequently, it entered a long adjustment period for the auto market. Under the background of a large price reduction in January in the test of 2005 and the introduction of many new products, the auto market has entered a period of rapid growth.

3. Auto market bottom in 2019-see production

Production fluctuations in 2019 are huge. The production trend was relatively normal in March, and began to fall sharply to a lower level in 2015 in April. The production of passenger cars in the narrow sense from May to July remained at a low level of 1.5 million units, which is far lower than the production trend in 2014, indicating that the adjustment has been very strong.

Passenger car production in December was 2.109 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, which was a continuous positive increase after November. Manufacturers' inventory in December decreased by 80,000 units compared with November. Manufacturers 'inventory fell by 250,000 units in 2019, and also decreased by 150,000 units in 2018. Manufacturers' inventory decompression characteristics are obvious.

The auto market production recovery in 2019 is gradually reflected, and the production performance in December has significantly improved, and the growth rate has improved significantly from -20% over the same period to 3%. It is expected to gradually strengthen after 2020.

Impact of the pneumonia epidemic in 2020

The latest notice on the 26th, the notice of the General Office of the State Council on extending the Spring Festival holiday in 2020:

With the approval of the State Council, in order to strengthen the prevention and control of pneumonia outbreaks of new coronavirus infections, effectively reduce the gathering of people, block the spread of the epidemic, and better protect the lives and health of the people, the specific arrangements for extending the Spring Festival holiday in 2020 are notified as follows . I. Extend the Spring Festival holiday of 2020 to February 2 (the ninth day of the first lunar month and Sunday), and work normally from February 3 (Monday). Second, the tertiary institutions, primary and secondary schools, kindergartens postponed the start of school, the specific time will be notified separately by the education department.

Judging from the holiday arrangements communicated by the Federation before the Chinese New Year holiday, the incomplete statistics of the quantitative structure are: at that time, about 37% of the car companies were originally scheduled to work on January 31, and each of the five car companies on February 1 and 2 There are 17 car companies that work on February 3 and after, accounting for 40%.

At present, the holiday time must be completely changed according to the requirements of the country, and its impact is still more complicated.

1. Spring Festival holiday extension-January plan is difficult to achieve

The sales manager of the dealership store and the car company are familiar with the routine. The car company's plan is a monthly plan. The last day of each month is extremely important. The sales of some car companies on the last day are large. .

The last day of January this year is the first day of work after the holiday. This is also the key day for the dealers to have a good Spring Festival. Manufacturers do not hold the warehouse before the holiday.

Now that the day is closed, it is difficult for the manufacturer's marketing system to cope with complex tasks such as the coordination of end-of-month order planning and fund matching, so the sprint in January should be less hopeful.

Although the sales volume in the first three weeks of January was okay, there was no sprint at the end of January, and the large negative growth in the whole month is estimated to be an inevitable result.

2. Production recovery in Hubei may be slower

In 2019, Hubei automobile production reached 2.24 million units, accounting for 8.8% of the country. It is one of the four largest automobile production bases in the country. Second Automobile is a Fortune 500 Chinese company.

Wuhan is one of the four largest passenger car bases in China, bringing together five major car families: the United States, Japan, France, the United Kingdom, and China, making it the most complete city in the nation's auto industry. There are many auto companies and auto parts auto companies in Wuhan. Shenlong, SAIC-GM, Dongfeng Honda, etc. all gather here.

Therefore, the Wuhan pneumonia epidemic will inevitably have a serious impact on Hubei automobile production. The core feature of automobile production is the long industrial chain, and the connection of the supply chain is extremely important. Therefore, under the current circumstances, Hubei's auto parts system should not resume production on time, at least a week or even longer. This is a February auto Production has severe adverse effects.

Therefore, the total automobile production in February 2020 should be seriously affected, and production will be blocked, leading to a more serious decline year-on-year.

3. Consumption is blocked before the holiday-manufacturers and distributors have insufficient inventory after the holiday

The core feature of the downturn in the auto market in 2019 is destocking, and manufacturers are doing a lot of destocking. The actual production of automobiles is very difficult to determine production by sales. The so-called production by sales is based on the forecast of future sales and arranges the existing production. Otherwise, it should be called order production, and its production cycle is relatively long.

It is an obvious feature of the auto market to plan to keep up with the changes. You do not place orders when you do n’t need a car. You need to pick up a car when you need a car, so you must have a certain inventory.

The order production of some car companies is aimed at the redemption group. Car buyers have their own cars and the waiting time for redemption can be longer. But China accounts for half of the newly-purchased population, and most consumers still need the choice of stock cars. So it is kingly to have inventory before the Spring Festival.

The market in 2019 is relatively poor. Manufacturers have suffered the double impact of the clearance of the national five models and the sluggish consumption. Therefore, manufacturers have been reducing their inventories very much. Since May, they have continued to reduce their inventory. Manufacturers' inventory decreased by 150,000 in 2018 and 220,000 in 19, which was originally replenished in February 2020. However, it should be difficult to replenish the inventory of manufacturers and dealers in February. In particular, the inventory of some Japanese car companies is low, and it is difficult to resume production as planned in the short term. This time it should also be a large loss.

4. Obstructed logistics and consumer demand from SARS

The impact of the SARS epidemic that year was very complicated, and the consumer and service industries were inevitably affected. The impact on infrastructure, transportation and other areas was not small.

The year-on-year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods representing consumption in 2003 continued to decline significantly to 4.1% in the first few months of the quarter, the lowest point in the past few years; followed by the sudden decline in transportation activities and the growth rate of the value added of the transportation industry In May 2003, it fell to 2.3%, the lowest point in the past few years. Third, the production end was obviously weak due to factors such as the impact of the construction period on the epidemic situation. The year-on-year growth rate of industrial value added continued in the first few months of the first quarter. Significant decline.

5. Difficulties of Shared Car Ride

In the early stage, with the hype of the sharing economy and the promotion of capital, online car rental is a good business. However, the ebb of capital has also caused the "sharing economy" that the platform used "loss subsidies" to collapse. Coupled with the restrictions on the commercial operation of private cars and the ownership of drivers, the private cars that had effectively reduced the price of online car rental ebb.

According to Didi's public data, the number of ride-hailing drivers who have earned revenue on Didi's platform in 2019 reached 11.66 million, of which 51.5% were migrant workers. Compared with the previous number of registered drivers of 26 million, a total of 15 million fewer. The transportation capacity has been greatly reduced, and the platform's profit demand has increased.

The difficulty of taxis is highlighted, and the special nodes of the Spring Festival this year and the 众彩网 of the epidemic have also caused a lot of hidden safety hazards for traveling by car online. In addition, during the festival, the driver's desire to get out of the car is reduced, and the phenomenon of difficult and expensive taxis has once again repeated. And during the Spring Festival, a number of ride-hailing companies have suspended business.

In the early period of the Spring Festival, the fare increase, the rental car rental operation was also discussed due to the temporary introduction of the thank you module. At present, even full-time drivers have the idea that family reunion is better than several times the salary, so the supply is insufficient.

The problem of expensive taxis is high, and the monopoly cost of the platform remains high. The current contradiction between reduced driver income and expensive taxis for users is mainly due to the platform's higher and higher pumping rates. The 10-20% ratio is considered to be low. The phenomenon-level career of driving a car on the Internet has been changed to “Cool Life”. As long as the platform's business model does not change, 14 hours of hard work is not as good as a takeaway brother. It's not the feeling of walking away, but the increasing cost.

6. Marketing activities are blocked

Due to the epidemic pressure, travel will be greatly reduced at the end of January and February this year. The follow-up may also affect travel fluctuations in March. The auto market will also be affected to a certain extent, and the auto market will weaken. Due to the high mobility of social personnel at the dealer end, medical testing and other equipment will not be set up, and the spread of the epidemic cannot be restricted and controlled.

At present, it is estimated that automobile sales activities in many regions have been severely affected. For example, car group purchases and some marketing activities cannot be carried out, so it will cause some effects at the dealer end due to the epidemic.

7. Post-holiday rebound in consumer demand

The "Notice on Strict Prevention of Pneumonia Infected by New Coronavirus Transmission Through Transport" was recently issued by the Joint Prevention and Control Working Mechanism for Pneumonia Epidemic of New Coronavirus Infection.

The notification requires that the local transportation, civil aviation, railway and other departments (units) should formulate a pneumonia emergency treatment plan for new coronavirus infection.

Bus travel is temporarily affected. Following Wuhan, Hubei has suspended public transportation in many places and cities. This is to reduce population movements and avoid the spread of immunity. Due to the complexity of the infection, bus trips and Internet-ride trips are at risk of being cross-infected, so the country wants residents to stay at home.

Coupled with the increasing demand for residents to improve the quality of travel, the demand for private car travel is further strong. Expectations of surprise car purchases will also occur. Although the "SARS" in 2003 affected the automobile market in a short period of time, it also stimulated consumers' surprise purchases of cars to a certain extent. I was in the sales business at the time, and in my monitoring area, Beijing had good sales. With a car, there is an independent travel environment, which is safe, and this phenomenon will also occur.

8. The epidemic will have different degrees of impact on car sales of different brands, different categories (such as cars, SUVs, MPVs) and different regions.

At present, the epidemic situation in Wuhan has had a huge negative impact on the service industries such as entertainment, transportation, catering, and tourism around the Spring Festival. In the future, the consumption structure of residents' consumption will change greatly.

A \ outbreak promotes the first group purchase of cars.

The impact of the epidemic on the car market is relatively complicated. Because the epidemic is a further improvement of the vehicle ’s demand, the epidemic is a driving force for the conversion of car-free users to car-owned users. At present, the biggest problem in China ’s auto market is that the proportion of car-free users has fallen particularly quickly , Consumers have purchasing power problems, so the epidemic is a driving factor for carless users to buy a car.

B \ 's own brand benefits are relatively large.

Independent brands, as the models with a higher proportion of first purchases, should be said to benefit relatively. The entry-level consumers are relatively weak in purchasing power, and they are relatively expensive. And the inventory of independent brands should be said to be relatively abundant.

C \ Inventory benefits greatly.

Inventory is a valuable resource, which also causes joint venture brands to be more affected by inventory losses. In particular, some Japanese brands are pursuing excessively low inventory coefficients, which is actually a huge risk. Although it brings an increase in dealers' fares, it is generally not good for vehicle sales.

Therefore, the epidemic has promoted the increase in the number of such brands, and it has promoted some cost-effective models of joint venture brands, and the promotion effect on luxury cars is not obvious.

The D \ epidemic has promoted the sales of the SUV and car markets to a certain extent.

It is also mainly because SUV products are the main models for home consumption at present, and are also the first choice for road adaptability in the Midwest. At the same time, SUVs also meet the emotional needs of customers.

The Mpv market, as a means of production, is affected by uncertain future economic prospects, and it is difficult to increase sales.

E \ epidemic situation has greatly promoted the Midwest market.

From the perspective of the regional market, the market in the central and western regions should be said to have been promoted more. The eastern region has strong consumption power, consumers are enthusiastic about purchasing, and it is relatively low in the early stage due to the impact of house purchases. It should be said that it has a certain recovery effect.

According to the previous period, the central and western markets have been particularly affected by real estate. Therefore, with the increase in demand for car use, the base for popularization is low and there are more first-time buyers. The enthusiasm for car purchases will also be further restored.

Facing the epidemic, companies in the automotive industry chain should accelerate adjustments to mitigate adverse effects

1 \ Call on society to give more support.

The Chinese auto market is too difficult, especially the passenger car market is extremely difficult. This is because the passenger car market is facing a huge impact of blocked consumption. The years of downturn in the above car market are completely different in nature. Independent brands and leading manufacturers have been extremely difficult in the past two years, and have undertaken excessive social responsibilities. Part of the responsibilities of new energy vehicles that should be undertaken by battery companies have also been borne out by the companies.

2 \ To stabilize the team, to stabilize the workforce, to stabilize the management team.

Do not allow negative emotions to continue to spread. After the epidemic has been effectively alleviated, allow employees to return to work quickly and keep the team from dispersing. At the same time, we must pay attention to the support of foreign personnel and allow external engineering and technical personnel and management personnel to evacuate. , Personnel return to China as soon as possible.

3 \ Stable dealer system.

Dealers are too difficult. Since the implementation of the National 6 standard in July 2019, dealers have suffered huge inventory price losses. Moreover, there was no significant profit before the Spring Festival. In the case of a new epidemic, its ability to resist risks is relatively weak. Manufacturers need to give dealers more support to maintain good vendor relations.

4 \ Stable supply chain.

OEMs need to give more support to component companies and work together to overcome difficulties. Compared with OEMs, the overall strength of the auto parts supply chain is actually worse. Some parts and components companies also face the risk of instability in the workforce. Due to the large number of outsiders, it will be extremely cautious to return after leaving. The start of construction in Hubei region on time is a test for parts and components enterprises.

Overall, the pneumonia epidemic is a big impact on the auto market, but it is at risk. Unfavorable things also need to be effectively addressed by vehicle companies and the society. With the development of new energy vehicles, the popularization of private cars and the upgrade from consumption of food, clothing, housing, and consumption to travel consumption have a low base and huge potential.

According to the central deployment, take active action, stabilize the mentality, stabilize the team, increase consumption promotion measures, promote automobile consumption as the leader, promote the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the automobile powerhouse, and turn the crisis of the pneumonia epidemic into a driving force for economic and social development. This is also the original intention and mission of the industry.

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